It may be hard to believe that a President currently experiencing an impeachment hearing in the Senate and with favorable poll numbers no higher than the mid to high 40s would be a favorite to win reelection. However I see trends that support my belief that Trump will be reelected and it’s not because of any great achievements by his administration.
First, after watching the Democratic debates, I don’t see a winning candidate that can roll in the mud with Trump and come out victorious. All the Democratic candidates are genteel, proper and appropriately reserved in their speech and conduct. In other words, they are all roadkill for Trump. Trump will bully, bluster and lie his way around opposition campaign strategy. Debating Trump is a waste of time. Anyone who watched the three Trump-Clinton debates realized that she wiped the floor with him. He was inarticulate, ill prepared and totally outclassed on knowledge of foreign and domestic policies. Yet he was elected President after three disastrous debate performances.
Second, the number of no and low information voters may be higher than those who have a grasp of current events and policy considerations. These voters are more influenced by memes and insults which are Trump’s forte. Many Trump voters do not wish to be informed, they wish to be entertained. They also want a spokesman who will confirm and support their prejudices, feelings of religious persecutions and class oppression.
Third, there is very little long range thinking in government and that also applies to many voters. They are content to kick the cans of global warming, income inequality, affordable health care for all, immigration reform and education reforms down the road. Trump voters show little concern for the impacts of regulation pullbacks and corporate tax cuts on future generations.
Fourth, Trump has a united cabal behind him called the Republican party. He faces no internal opposition from Congress and no serious political opponent emerged to contest his nomination. The Democrats, on the other hand, are showing signs of fracture between the moderates (Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) and the liberal/socialists (Warren and Sanders). This division and the resultant lack of enthusiasm, support and turnout will doom the Democratic ticket.
Fifth, the role of the press has been critical in past elections. The press would uncover scandals and other stories that could doom a candidates’ chances. In 2016, the Access Hollywood tapes did not change the minds of many Trump supporters. His moral failings and bizarre behavior did not hurt him at all, especially among white Christian evangelicals. The press has been marginalized. Today a Republican woman senator refused to answer an appropriate question about the impeachment proceedings from a reporter labeling him a “liberal hack.” Trump has deflected many of the charges against him by citing “fake news.” It appears that many voters have bought into this fraudulent tactic.
Today there are no editorials calling for Trump’s resignation of removal from office. Democrats have failed to go after Trump like he has attacked them. There is no Democratic spokesperson with the exception of Nancy Pelosi who has blunted Trump’s attacks. I don’t see things changing by November. Four more years…