Tag: politics

Six Quick Observations from the 2-19-20 Democratic Presidential Debate

For full disclosure, I have watched all the Democratic Presidential debates. This debate was the most meaningful and all the knives came out tonight that were held in all the candidates’ scabbards prior to tonight.

  1. With each Democratic debate, the better the chance that Donald Trump will be re-elected. The longer the nomination process goes undecided, again, the better the chance that Trump will be re-elected. The debates and some of the inane questions presented by the debate moderators only hurt the Democratic candidates. Some of the questions were just meant to rile up the candidates. Case in point, questions to Amy Klobuchar for not knowing the name of the President of Mexico. Really?
  2. Elizabeth Warren should be the Democratic nominee. She’s smart, articulate, energetic and her verbal takedown of Mike Bloomberg was the template on how a candidate should confront and challenge Donald Trump in a debate and during the election cycle. She had the best debate performance tonight by far.
  3. Mike Bloomberg was very unimpressive. He badly fumbled responding to issues about “stop and frisk,” his support of Obamacare, non-disclosure agreement releases from his employees and failure to release his tax returns. The Democrats badly need his money—-just not Mike.
  4. Prior to this debate, I viewed Amy Klobuchar as the best candidate for VP. The ticket will need a strong woman with legislative experience and from a Midwest state. She exhibited some thin skin and loss of poise when pressed by Pete Buttigieg on her voting record. She does have a reputation for having a bad temper and it flared onstage. I noticed she stalked off the stage when the debate was over, not stopping to shake anyone’s hands. Maybe Pete is angling for the VP nomination over Amy.
  5. I sense 1972 again. The Democrats nominate a candidate who has a huge appeal to young people but who will frighten off more moderate and older voters. Say what you want about Bernie Sanders, he does exhibit a lot more energy and acuity than septuagenarians Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg and Donald Trump. However, he’ll get crucified with the socialist label by the GOP and Fox. I think Trump will, in boxing terms, be able to “rope a dope” his way past Bernie in a debate. Warren won’t let Trump out of the corner.
  6. Joe Biden looks old. He had a decent debate. He attacked Mike Bloomberg effectively. But I can’t see him having the energy to run hard for the election. Good man. But time has passed him by.

Why Trump will be Re-Elected

It may be hard to believe that a President currently experiencing an impeachment hearing in the Senate and with favorable poll numbers no higher than the mid to high 40s would be a favorite to win reelection. However I see trends that support my belief that Trump will be reelected and it’s not because of any great achievements by his administration.

First, after watching the Democratic debates, I don’t see a winning candidate that can roll in the mud with Trump and come out victorious. All the Democratic candidates are genteel, proper and appropriately reserved in their speech and conduct. In other words, they are all roadkill for Trump. Trump will bully, bluster and lie his way around opposition campaign strategy. Debating Trump is a waste of time. Anyone who watched the three Trump-Clinton debates realized that she wiped the floor with him. He was inarticulate, ill prepared and totally outclassed on knowledge of foreign and domestic policies. Yet he was elected President after three disastrous debate performances.

Second, the number of no and low information voters may be higher than those who have a grasp of current events and policy considerations. These voters are more influenced by memes and insults which are Trump’s forte. Many Trump voters do not wish to be informed, they wish to be entertained. They also want a spokesman who will confirm and support their prejudices, feelings of religious persecutions and class oppression.

Third, there is very little long range thinking in government and that also applies to many voters. They are content to kick the cans of global warming, income inequality, affordable health care for all, immigration reform and education reforms down the road. Trump voters show little concern for the impacts of regulation pullbacks and corporate tax cuts on future generations.

Fourth, Trump has a united cabal behind him called the Republican party. He faces no internal opposition from Congress and no serious political opponent emerged to contest his nomination. The Democrats, on the other hand, are showing signs of fracture between the moderates (Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) and the liberal/socialists (Warren and Sanders). This division and the resultant lack of enthusiasm, support and turnout will doom the Democratic ticket.

Fifth, the role of the press has been critical in past elections. The press would uncover scandals and other stories that could doom a candidates’ chances. In 2016, the Access Hollywood tapes did not change the minds of many Trump supporters. His moral failings and bizarre behavior did not hurt him at all, especially among white Christian evangelicals. The press has been marginalized. Today a Republican woman senator refused to answer an appropriate question about the impeachment proceedings from a reporter labeling him a “liberal hack.” Trump has deflected many of the charges against him by citing “fake news.” It appears that many voters have bought into this fraudulent tactic.

Today there are no editorials calling for Trump’s resignation of removal from office. Democrats have failed to go after Trump like he has attacked them. There is no Democratic spokesperson with the exception of Nancy Pelosi who has blunted Trump’s attacks. I don’t see things changing by November. Four more years…