The End of October by Lawrence Wright (A Book Review)

The End of October is a novel that incorporates the following elements = Horror Story + Political Novel + Family’s fight for survival + Cautionary Tale.

This novel was written and published before the Covid 19 pandemic and what’s most surprising is how the author has eerily forecasted many of the events and issues that we are experiencing now. (He even predicted the U.S. Vice President being in charge of the pandemic task force and failing.)

I have read two other non-fiction books by Wright: Thirteen Days in September: Carter, Begin, and Sadat at Camp David and The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. Those books, like this novel, are excellent.

The background of this book includes the following: Global pandemic (Kongoli) that kills hundreds of millions of people…no cures, no vaccines…famine worldwide…Middle East war between Saudi Arabia And Iran…terrorist attacks by religious fanatics…cyber warfare between the United States and Russia that destroys each nation’s infrastructure and economies…economic depression, fallen governments worldwide…

It’s not a pleasant read or a feel good story. One can easily imagine the parade of horribles that could happen under those events. Panic. Hospitals overwhelmed. Government ineffective. (Philadelphia becomes the first U.S. hotspot in this novel).

Within all this chaos is epidemiologist Henry Parsons desperately trying to develop a vaccine, stay alive (he has more adventures and near death experiences than Indiana Jones)  and find a way to get back to the United States and save his wife and two children.

For me, the book had a slow start but quickly became a page turner after the fourth or fifth chapter. There is also an unexpected surprise finding at the end of the book.

One of the two or three best novels I have read in 2020…

“Keep Shooting”: A Feel Good story for a Not So Feel Good Time

This is a story that took place more than 45 years ago. In a 30 minute span, I may have inadvertently offered the best advice that I ever offered anyone not only about basketball but also life and in return, I received a lasting life lesson and one of the nicest things ever said to me, all from a young boy who just wanted to shoot baskets.

When people need to clear their head, some may pray, some may meditate and others may go for a long walk or run. In my 20’s and 30’s, I would pick up my basketball and head for the courts to shoot some hoops. Shooting baskets was a very centering practice and often served as my moment of Zen. Bounce, Balance, Aim, Release, Follow Through, Retrieve the basketball and Repeat. So on a sunny summer afternoon, I found the basketball court at Memorial Park in Cinnaminson empty. There was no one to disturb me and I was left alone to empty my mind and forget my worries.

Photo by Stephanie Young Mertzel

Routinely when I practiced alone, I would start with bank shots off the backboard and then move further back until I felt warmed up. I would then shoot set shots trying to find a rhythm and pace.   I would then practice lay-ups and jump shots before I finished with shooting foul shots. I would be so focused on this ritual that I would often lose track of time and not notice people or activities around me.

But not this day…

After shooting for about ten minutes, in the corner of my eye, I caught a young boy maybe nine or ten sitting silently on the side. He watched me for a while and every now and then I heard a low “Wow” or see a shake of his head in approval when I hit a basket. I really was in “flow” and I did not want to be disturbed and have to share my time on the court with anyone. Every now and then the ball would roll over to where he was sitting and he would slowly get up and roll the ball back to me.

I was able to largely avoid the youngster until I noticed that he now stood and was mimicking how I was shooting as if to copy the shooting motion. The boy was mostly silent to me as if he knew that I was in my own world and he was trying not to disturb it.  But I could tell he wanted to shoot baskets.

In my mind, the young boy sparked a memory of my youth. It was of another young boy, about his age, fatherless, who also stood silently at a park or ball field hoping that someone would let him play catch or toss a football around. That shy young boy was also silent not wishing to intrude but also hoping that he would be invited to play.

I motioned the young boy to come over and asked him if he wanted to shoot. I noticed that as he walked over, his balance seemed unsteady. One of his legs appeared to drag. I softly tossed him the basketball and noticed he had some difficulty in catching it. When he dribbled the ball, he did it slowly with two hands as if he never touched a basketball before. When he spoke, I detected a slight lisp or speech impediment.

His first few shoots did not touch the rim. His shooting motion seemed forced and I wondered if he suffered some type of physical disability. I could tell he was becoming discouraged as he kept missing. I kept handing him the ball silently after he missed shot after shot. I sensed his frustration. He stopped after one bad miss and handed me the ball and said, “Thank you” and turned to sadly walk away.

“Don’t leave,” I urged the retreating youngster. “Keep shooting! Everybody misses at first. Don’t give up.” I then showed him how to bend his knees and use his arms to aim the ball to propel the shot. He struggled for a few more shots where he hit nothing. Then one of his shots bounced around the rim. He wanted to stop and I told him “Keep shooting.” Finally with one big heave he made a basket. He seemed very relieved as I smiled at his success. “All huge journeys begin with one small step,” I told him.

To compensate for his poor arm strength, I showed him the Rick Barry style of shooting foul shots underhanded where he could use both arms to power the shot to reach the rim. He was better able to reach the rim and he made a few baskets bringing a slow smile to his face. What was an exercise in futility for him now became a challenge he gladly accepted.

I had to leave but I urged him to keep practicing. I could sense a bit of sadness in his eyes as I said it. I asked him if he had a basketball at home and he said he did not. I wondered what kind of home life he had and if kids his age would play sports with him. He did not appear to have the athletic and mobility skills that kids his age would have. I sensed that he may not have been invited to play any sports.  

I handed him my basketball. I told him the basketball was his but he needed to keep shooting to get better. It was as if I was giving him a new bicycle for Christmas. His face lit up with a smile. I did not realize at the time that I was providing him a lesson not just for basketball, but for life. You will face frustrations especially when you attempt new things. You will have bad streaks where you will get discouraged. His struggles may have been more challenging given his physical limitations.

As I grabbed my towel to leave, I asked him if he watched basketball on television. He shook his head yes. I then asked him if there was a player he wanted to be like. He paused, looked down at the basketball in his hands, raised his head slowly and answered, “You.”

The boy’s answer stunned me. I was going to try to say something witty and self deprecating but I could not. I could not speak. I know the youngster appreciated my time and attention that I provided. I nodded my head and smiled my thanks and headed for my car. The boy may have thought as I walked away that I was using the towel to wipe sweat from my brow. I was wiping my eyes.

Never been a coach, never was fortunate to be a father but fortunate to have that opportunity to make a small impression on that boy’s life. I envy all of you who have or had greater opportunities to make positive impressions on a young boy or young girl’s life. I just shared mine…

Day after Election Day (10:15 a.m.)

I don’t know yet who won the Presidential election but I know who lost, the American people. The country is even more divided 50-50 than projected before. There is no mandate to move one way or the other.

No political landslide this cycle, more like a political mud-slide.

I view political poll results as credible as readings from a crystal ball or investments ideas from a broker. Pollsters have had 72 years since they screwed up the 1948 Dewey-Truman race to improve their collection and screening of data and conduct accurately a snapshot of people’s opinions. Big fails in both national and state polls this election!

Another waste of time are political debates. They rarely move the partisan needle. Trump’s first debate with Biden was a disaster as his conduct was embarrassing. But obviously it did not hurt him in the election. Political debates are like pro wrestling matches – – ballyhooed, choreographed and the results don’t matter.

Democrats ran two very qualified Senate candidates against weakened Republican incumbents and lost decisively, despite polls showing tight races. Theresa Greenfield lost to Joni Ernst in Iowa and Jaime Harrison lost to Lindsay Graham in South Carolina. (Coincidentally to my point above, Ernst and Graham had very poor debate performances.) Republican Susan Collins, who appeared to be in an underdog in her Senate race in Maine, may hold her seat.

Not that half this country’s voters care but there were 1,130 new deaths due to coronavirus yesterday with 92,660 new infection cases.

Thought Leaders

I find that many of the disagreements that I have with people on politics and current events has to do with our respective sources of information. Many of my Facebook friends rely upon memes (that I consider social media graffiti) Fox News ideologues and political blogs with dubious reporting and analysis when they attempt to muster up an opinion or viewpoint.

I’d like to offer these friends some other alternatives for information. My list includes thought leaders, people with genuine credibility and expertise in their fields. Most have written books (not memes), are articulate and have a track record of achievement. These are people whose opinions and viewpoints I follow. I may not agree with all their opinions but I respect their ideas and arguments.

Politics:

Maureen Dowd

Tom Friedman

Fareed Zakaria

Pete Buttigieg

Tom Nichols

Ian Bremmer

Paul Krugman

Dave Pell

Gary Trudeau

Maggie Haberman

Mike Murphy

Historians

Jill Lepore

Jon Meacham

Doris Kearns Goodman

Kurt Andersen

Michael Beschloss

Religion

Karen Armstrong

Bart Ehrman

Sam Harris

Michelle Boorstein

Comedy/Satire

Chris Rock

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

Michelle Wolf

Jimmy Kimmel

Business/Tech

Scott Galloway

Kara Swisher

Malcolm Gladwell

Mark Cuban

Elon Musk

Emily Chang

Daniel Pink

Seth Godin

Economics/Finance

Robert Shiller

Nomi Prins

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Adam Tooze

Naseem Nicholas Taleb

Warren Buffett

Photo by Ivan Bertolazzi from Pexels

Perfect Moments

Years ago, I read Chasing Daylight: How My Forthcoming Death Transformed My Life by Eugene O’Kelly. O’Kelly was the CEO at KPMG who was diagnosed with terminal cancer and died within three and a half months of the announcement. The book was primarily about the art of dying though O’Kelly did offer some advice about how to live. O’Kelly described his goal of pursuing Perfect Moments and Perfect Days. For example, he described having a four hour dinner, good wine and conversation with friends as a perfect moment.

So it got me to thinking, what are my “perfect moments?”

Here are a few of my perfect moments:

Unhurried dinner or lunch with friends in a quiet setting conversing lightly and laughing about the “old days”, memories, anecdotes, people, sports, politics etc.

Sitting by the ocean just watching the waves roll in, enjoying the sun and not allowing a care in the world to ruin the moment.

Sitting on my porch engrossed in a great book or story and losing track of time.

Listening to my music of my youth and allowing experiences, feelings and people to flow back into memory.

Any time with my wife.

Common Cents (12 Observations on Money)

I believe that every state should mandate a high school course teaching students personal financial management. Normally parents are expected to pass down their knowledge on this subject but just like sex education, the message does not always get passed or understood. Students would be taught the following lessons:

  • How and where to save money
  • Building an emergency cash fund
  • How to create a budget
  • How, when and where to apply for debt
  • How to maintain an excellent credit rating (FICO)
  • Principles of smart shopping (car, clothes, etc.)
  • Student loan programs for college (qualifications, terms, costs)
  • Paying personal Income and other taxes
  • Mortgages and Home Equity lending
  • Purchasing Insurances (car, renters, health, home)
  • Principles Of Investing (Stocks, Bonds, Gold)
  • Retirement Planning

In lieu of the course, this is the type of financial guidance I would offer young people about to graduate high school or college. These observations also apply to  those who are a bit older:

  1. For many young people, a university education may not be worth the costly tuition in terms of return of your investment, and like a new car leaving the dealership, may become a depreciating asset.
  2. Often the person most responsible for your financial success or failure is not your banker, your financial advisor, Jim Cramer or your accountant. It’s your spouse or life partner, so choose wisely!
  3. The same foolproof strategy applies to both successfully investing in the stock market and gambling in a casino: Luck 
  4. In investing, the only “sure thing” is that there is no sure thing.
  5. The best skills for financial management in business or personally are the abilities to first, create a workable budget and second, keep to the budget.
  6. Before retirement, your focus should be on stoking your retirement funds with contributions and a smart investment strategy. After retirement, you should be focused on your burn rate (how quickly and smartly you spend your retirement dollars). A controlled burn rate can mitigate shortfalls in your retirement strategy.
  7. The smartest career strategy in terms of financial independence is to transition from getting a paycheck (employee) to either issuing paychecks to your employees (as a business owner) or collecting receivables (as an entrepreneur)
  8. The most satisfying experiences are gained from, as a businessman, turning around a failing company and from as a caring person, turning around an individual who needed help and guidance.
  9. Buy lifelong experiences as opposed to buying things whose pleasure is transitory.
  10. The greatest investment of your time and energy should be in your health not your wealth.
  11. Despite their advertising, banks are not your friend or your “neighbor”. They are in business to make money off of you. They collect your deposits and pay you .01% interest while charging you 100+x more for interest if you borrow for a mortgage or car loan.
  12. You should be as dubious about the accuracy of the numbers on a corporate balance sheet as you would the age of an actress or the net worth of President Trump. 

Facebook Posts 2020

I write a variety of posts on Facebook including my observations on politics, current events, sports, business and life. Shown below are some recent posts. Many of my Facebook posts are written from emotion rather than reason. My comments are in italics.

Responding to  my friend Mike’s claim about the qualifications of Amy Comey Barrett for the Supreme Court…

Oh she is qualified, if you want to get rid of Obamacare. Oh she is qualified, if you want to get rid of Roe v. Wade. Oh she is qualified, If you want a judge who will protect corporations against the interest of consumers and smaller businesses. Mike, I’m not sure what papers you read or what your sources of information are. Trump about a week ago wanted to table any aid for consumers or businesses related to coronavirus until after the election. What changed his mind? The stock market!! By the way, Mike, can you tell me what Trump’s plan is to replace Obamacare? If you can, you are the only person in the United States who can. (10-13-20)

My comments about Mrs. Barrett’s nomination in general…

I guess the kindest thing that I can say about this hearing is to agree with Senator Klobuchar that it is a “sham.” We are conducting this hearing in the middle of an election that Trump will probably lose and in the middle of an epidemic where over 200,000 people have died and maybe another hundred thousand more will die before the end of 2020. When our priorities should be about helping businesses and individuals cope with the effects of this pandemic, we are witnessing the jamming of an unqualified nominee for purely political and ideological purposes. I laugh when I hear that this is an effort for pro life. Republicans don’t give a damn about the incredible mess that they have made of this country. Just watched Senator McConnell yesterday laughing in derision when his opponent in a debate cited all the deaths involved in the coronavirus. I am deeply ashamed of this country….(10-13-20)

My observations about Harris-Pence VP Debate

I think Kamala did a great job  but regrettably it will not change any votes.  Four years ago, I saw another woman basically clean the floor with her male opponent at three debates. (10-7-20

My observations about the over the top Trump-Biden debate:

I can’t watch this debate anymore! This is a joke. Biden should walk off the stage and let Trump talk to himself. (9-29-20)

An observation about the utility of meetings from my corporate life.

I’ve been retired for a few years from corporate life but I do not miss meetings. 95% of them were a waste of my time and unproductive. (8-21-20)

Ruminations as I walked during the first few weeks of the pandemic.

In lieu of pickleball, I now take long walks from my home into Merchantville. It is a very quiet journey. I pass very few cars and very few people. Playgrounds are empty. No kids playing in the streets. Sporadically, I will pass another walker or a jogger. Except for the pharmacies, there is no commerce in Merchantville. Streets in the business district are empty. Parking meters stand lonely. I wonder and worry how many of the small businesses like those in Merchantville will survive if they are unable to open within the next few months. (3-24-20)

Entertainment advice at the beginning of quarantine…

For all of us who may soon be quarantined, I recommend watching the original and reprise versions of The Thomas Crown Affair. Both movie versions are excellent.  I prefer the Steve McQueen – Faye Dunaway version based on this one scene. (Steve and Faye’s characters playing “seductive” chess)  Never realized that playing chess could be so seductive… (3-8-20)

ACB < RBG

Amy Coney Barrett has an impressive academic and career resume. She also appears to be a great mom and wife. She has also adopted two Haitian children and has a child with Down syndrome comprising her children of seven. She is articulate, young and smart. 

But I do not believe she should be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice…

There are four reasons why I would not want to see Mrs. Barrett confirmed.

First, she was nominated by Donald Trump. A President obviously has the right and obligation to nominate a qualified person for the Supreme Court. But Mr. Trump has the performance record of the ‘NFC East” in making Cabinet and other political appointments. Many have been a disaster because they were unqualified or misused their offices. So based on who is recommending her and on those who are supporting her, I have reservations about her being the best person for the job. 

Second, Merrick Garland. In 2016, Republicans chose not to act on his nomination to the Supreme Court even when it was announced in March 2016. Republican senators pushed back that the next President should have the opportunity to nominate the next Supreme Court justice. Most Americans, according to recent polls, agree that the selection of the next Supreme Court justice should be left to the winner of the November election. Given that the election is a month away, I would agree there should be no rush for this decision to be made given my third point below.

Third, Congress should be focused on one thing and that is helping Americans and small businesses to survive through the pandemic. I realize that many Republicans are fighting for their political lives but many Americans are literally fighting for their lives. Given the rise in pandemic rates and with winter approaching, Congress must focus on addressing national priorities not fighting ideological battles. This is a lifetime appointment and requires appropriate due diligence and deliberation.

Fourth, I was very young when John F. Kennedy addressed voters’ concerns about his Catholicism in 1960 and how it could affect his political decisions. JFK successfully convinced the electorate that his religious beliefs would not determine his policy directions. I’m not totally comfortable that Mrs. Barrett feels that way. I’m also not comfortable that Mrs. Barrett is part of a religion that promotes a pro-life agenda while having allowed tens of thousands of children to be abused by its clergy and then to maliciously lie and cover up the claims of abuse. There are already five Catholics on the current Supreme Court. I’d like to see some additional diversity in temperament, background, experience and perspective when it comes to a life time appointment. I would not mind seeing an atheist or agnostic judge (if a qualified one admits to it) than a religious one.