Month: January 2025

Start of the Rout?

If America is a stock, is it time to dump it and sell?

Like the ouroboros, I believe Big Tech is eating itself alive with its component companies throwing more and more cash at investments in one another that are most likely to generate less and less of a return. Monday’s correction shows that our financial markets — and possibly your retirement portfolio — may be starting to reflect an understanding of this dynamic. New York Times 1/28/25 I Study Financial Markets. The Nvidia Rout Is Only the Start. Mihir A. Desai is a professor at Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School.

If Trump’s all-in-on-fossil-fuels, “drill, baby, drill” rallying cry — at the dawn of this era of artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, batteries and autonomous cars — really becomes our strategy, it will not make America great again. But it will definitely help make China great again. New York Times 1/28/25 Trump Is Going Woke Thomas Friedman

The bond market is telling us something about the dawn of the second Trump presidency, and it’s not pretty….Most of the policies proposed by President Trump, from tariffs to additional fiscal stimulus to deportations that tighten the labor market, are expected to add to inflation. And to the degree they are enacted, they will combine with an inflation rate that has declined rapidly, but which remains above the Federal Reserve’s target and is still higher than it was during most of the decade leading up to the pandemic. Rising long-term rates are bad for businesses and households that need to borrow, since the cost of loans such as mortgages and auto loans are directly linked to 10-year Treasury yields. New York Times 1/29/25 Trump’s Plans Are Already Making Your Life More Expensive Rebecca Patterson (is an economist and market strategist)

Send in the Clowns…

I am less agitated by the pardons of two men within the past few weeks than the pardons granted by 77.3 million voters last November.

I have no sympathy for Buyer’s remorse. I note the surprise and consternation as the curtain opened and the opening acts started. The fine print was clear: no returns, no exchanges, and no refunds on this runaway circus of calamity. You bought the ticket, and now you’re strapped in for the whole ghastly ride, derailments and all.

Upset that his hand wasn’t on the Bible during the oath of office? Why bother with a prop for principles he neither understands nor respects!

“We criticized the German people for allowing a Hitler to rise, but in the early 1930s, Germany was reeling from a global economic depression, compounded by severe unemployment and the crushing reparations imposed after World War I. Restricted in rebuilding its military and manufacturing, Germany was a demoralized and defeated nation. In contrast, the United States in 2024 elected Trump amidst economic prosperity, low unemployment, and a position of military and political strength, fully in control of its destiny.”

What would Dwight Eisenhower, Harry Truman, Douglas McArthur, Edward R. Murrow and Walter Cronkite opine if they were at the Inauguration ceremonies last Monday?

Winter Journal by Paul Auster (Recommendation and Review)

I first read this book in 2012 when I was 60 years old. It had a profound effect on me then. My fears of getting older were starting. Reading this book at 72, I have a new appreciation for Auster’s messaging on aging, death and memories. The tale is sobering, not depressing. Auster had an interesting story to tell about his life’s experiences.

“Winter Journal” is a deeply personal memoir published in 2012, written when Auster was 64 years old. Auster begins by documenting his bodily sensations and physical experiences, starting with a detailed account of his mother’s death and moving through various moments of his life. He explores personal traumas, near-death experiences, and significant physical memories that have shaped his understanding of himself.

The memoir covers several key themes: mortality, aging, memory, and personal history.

List of my favorite excerpts below:

Your bare feet on the cold floor as you climb out of bed and walk to the window. You are 64 years old. Outside, the air is gray, almost white, with no sun visible. You ask yourself: How many mornings are left?

Nevertheless, there are things that you miss from the old days, even if you have no desire to see those days return. The ring of the old telephones, the clacking of typewriters, milk and bottles, baseball without designated hitters, vinyl records, galoshes, stockings, and garter belts, black and white movies, heavyweight champions,… basketball before the three-point shot, contempt for authority.

Your birthday has come and gone. 64 years old now, inching ever closer to senior citizenship, to the days of Medicare and Social Security benefits, to a time when more and more of your friends will have left you. So many of them are gone already – –but just wait for the deluge that is coming.

That is why you will never forget these words, which were the last words spoken to one of your friends by his dying father: “Just remember, Charlie, “he said “never pass up an opportunity to piss.” And so the wisdom of the ages is handed down from one generation to the next.

Joubert: The end of life is bitter. Less than a year after writing those words, at the age of 61, which must’ve seemed considerably older in 1815 then it does today, he jotted down a different and far more challenging formulation about the end of life: One must die, lovable (if one can.)





Pickleball Challenge before You Get on a Court

My pickleball friends will understand this graphic. In many pickleball meet-ups, a player needs to sign in at a dedicated website (e.g. meetup.com)and at an appointed reservation time, press “Attend” to reserve their spot. Many times, if you don’t sign up in the first 10-15 seconds, you may find yourself on a waitlist with dozens of other players. Such is the popularity of pickleball and the need for more places to play.

Capitol Follies 2025

Washington DC, that dismal swamp of mediocrity and mendacity, approaches the hiring of its high officials with a flair unmatched in any sane business enterprise. In the sober halls of a corporation, the applicant who arrives reeking of drink, armed with a résumé bereft of accomplishment, and crowned with the dubious laurels of personal absurdity would be unceremoniously ejected. Yet in our Capitol, such a man or woman, smirking contemptuously, as they avoid answering questions or explaining past comments is not merely tolerated but fêted as a paragon of public service. A carnival of absurdity, and the joke, as always, is on us.

On January 20 at noon, the curtain rises, the stage lights dim and the horror show begins.

Behold the mighty pageant of our age: politicians, pundits, and captains of industry prostrate not before the divine, but grovel in servility before our self proclaimed Caesar, trading their spines for a pat on the head and scraps from his table.

Line Calls

When I don’t play pickleball, I write about it…

I Saw the Light
Still playing “lights out”—literally—at St. Matt’s pickleball. No word yet on when the new lights will be installed. Despite the dim conditions, meetups remain popular, with players showing up under less-than-ideal circumstances.

It’s Not You, It’s Me
Like speed dating, partner switching in professional pickleball has become the norm. Even Ben and Colin Johns, dominant champions for years, are splitting up in 2025 to pursue new partnerships. Many pros are following suit, aiming for gold medals and bigger paydays. Pair splitting also happens at the recreational level, but with much less drama.

Offers I Could Refuse
PickleballTV, the online media service, now offers subscriptions: $5.99/month or $59.99/year. While I enjoy watching pickleball online, PickleballTV doesn’t yet match the production quality of Tennis Channel. From a business perspective, it feels premature to charge for a service that’s still refining its offerings.

Meanwhile, MeetUp has introduced MeetUp+ with subscription features that were previously free. Since being acquired by Bending Spoons last year, the platform feels outdated and in need of a refresh—not exactly a premium experience worth the added cost.

What Goes Up, Must Come Down
Pickleball’s growth is impressive, but industry players should tread carefully. If I were a paddle manufacturer, coach, or facility owner, I’d focus on competitive pricing, branding and quality. Just like the stock market, a “correction” could be on the horizon, forcing adjustments in strategy.

Crystal Ball Outlook
An analysis of DUPR scores shows the median player rating at 3.29, meaning half of players score higher and half lower. I predict the median will rise to around 3.50 in the next five years as younger players pick up the sport in schools and colleges.

To Lob or Not to Lob—No Longer the Question
Lobbing in pickleball can be as polarizing as playing with the sun in your eyes or battling high winds. Offensive lobs are often seen as unfair and even risky in social games, where players can injure themselves chasing down balls. I’ve decided to reserve lobs for defensive purposes in casual matches, but in a competitive game, all bets are off!

Takin’ Care of Business
The business side of pickleball risks overshadowing the sport itself. Pro pickleball is a mess, with issues like financial instability, disputes over illegal paddles, ever-changing rules, and player misconduct. Thankfully, the recreational game has largely been insulated from these woes—for now.

Three Best Pickleball Podcasts

  • King of the Court with Tyler Loong and Jimmy Miller
  • PicklePod with Zane Navratil and Thomas Shields
  • Tennis Sucks with Travis Rettenmaier and Graham D’Amico

A Certain Idea of America: Selected Writings by Peggy Noonan (Book Review)

Peggy Noonan is one of the very few Republicans with whom I feel I could sit down and have a civil conversation about politics, history, and current events. My belief is affirmed after reading her book, A Certain Idea of America: Selected Writings, a collection of recent commentaries on politics, personalities, culture, and contemporary issues. Her writing is measured, thoughtful, and often insightful.

For instance, in a column written in 2019, Noonan offered advice to Joe Biden, attempting to dissuade him from running for president in 2020. Her words, in hindsight, appear not only as good counsel but also as prophetic given Biden’s mixed success as president:

“Your very strength – that you enjoy talking to both sides, that deep in your heart you see no one as deplorable – will be your weakness. You aren’t enough of a warrior. You’re sweet, you’re weak, you’re half daffy. You’re meh.”

Noonan stands as an outlier within the Republican Party. Her style of writing seeks to inform, inspire, and not inflame. She is no supporter of Trump. Even her criticism of Trump’s antics and leadership is measured—acerbic yet never descending into vitriol.

One passage in particular may encapsulate her sharp perspective on America’s present and future trajectory:

“In time, we’ll see you lose something when you go post-heroic. Colorful characters will make things more divided, not less. They’ll entertain, but not ennoble. And the world will think less of us – America has become a clownish, unserious country with clownish, unserious leaders – which will have an impact on our ability to influence events.”

This observation feels prescient and poignant, capturing a sense of national disquiet. Unfortunately, not enough Americans shared this view during the last election. Perhaps Noonan could have lent her rhetorical skills to Kamala Harris and the Democrats to sharpen their messaging.

While I don’t agree with all her views—for instance, I’m not as enamored with Billy Graham or Ronald Reagan as she is—I respect her opinions. Her prose is engaging, and the short commentaries, originally published in The Wall Street Journal, make for an easy yet thought-provoking read.