Under the Influence…

Shown below is a short list of journalists, writers and media types, whose opinions I value. I may not agree with all their conclusions or analysis, but I will take the time to consider them.

Late additions to my Political Influencers list: Jon Meacham, Chrystia Freeland, George Will, Jessica Tarlov, Kaitlyn Collins, Garry Trudeau and Jennifer Griffin (sole Fox News journalist).

President Trump is systematically severing America from the globe. This is not simply a shift in foreign policy. It is a divorce so comprehensive that it makes Britain’s exit from the European Union look modest by comparison.

Consider the breadth of this effort. Allies have been treated like adversaries. The United States has withdrawn from international agreements on fundamental issues like health and climate change. A “nation of immigrants” now deports people without due process, bans refugees and is trying to end birthright citizenship. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have upended the system of international trade, throwing up new barriers to doing business with every country on Earth. Foreign assistance has largely been terminated. So has support for democracy abroad. Research cuts have rolled back global scientific research and cooperation. The State Department is downsizing. Exchange programs are on the chopping block. Global research institutions like the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center have been effectively shut down. And, of course, the United States is building a wall along its southern border.

100 Days. That’s All It Took to Sever America From the World. Ben Rhodes NYT 4/27/25

In a poll from Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos, Trump’s standing was the lowest of any president in the first 100 days of his term since 1945, with 39% saying they approve of his job performance while 55% disapprove. As much as I am upset about Trump’s poor performance, as president, I am even more angry that 39% of Americans could possibly approve of his job performance. What kind of grading curve are these people on!? However, I am reminded that even in the ruins of Germany in April 1945 that many Germans still supported Adolf Hitler.

Playing with “White House” Money

I’ll admit it: I wasn’t the most attentive economics student in college. But recent events have forced me into a crash course in tariffs, trade, the stock market—and most urgently—the U.S. Treasury market.

These aren’t abstract terms anymore. I’ve been following the conversations—some sober, some frantic—coming from economists, traders, financial analysts, and CEOs. What stands out is how few of them support our current approach to tariffs. I hesitate to call it a “policy.” It feels more like something made up on the fly.

President Trump has been lucky in the past. He was rescued by his father’s money and banks willing to take risks that didn’t always pan out. He wasn’t so lucky in the casino business, and I don’t think he realizes he’s holding a weak hand in the high-stakes game of tariffs. When countries like China and Japan begin offloading U.S. Treasuries, it’s not just a financial maneuver—it’s a warning. They’re saying loud and clear: you’re not playing with our house money.

Let’s be honest: America is losing friends. Longtime allies are distancing themselves. They were stunned when Trump won reelection last November—and outright furious when “Liberation Day” was declared weeks ago. While Congress, the courts, and much of the press seem hesitant to challenge him, our international allies are not. They’re making new economic and diplomatic arrangements—and the U.S. is no longer on the guest list.

This has consequences. If foreign investors stop buying U.S. Treasury bonds—or worse, start selling them—our ability to fund government programs, including Social Security, is at risk. No one will be spared the fallout. It’s hard to believe our leaders don’t grasp how dangerous this path is.

And it may already be too late. Confidence in the U.S. has taken a major hit. There are reports of Canadian tourists canceling trips here—more signs of the growing unease.

If you’re a CEO or business owner, how can you plan with any confidence when the rules of the game keep shifting? The White House seems deaf to the frustration coming from both abroad and increasingly from within our own borders.

Democrats and critics are pinning their hopes on the 2026 midterms. But if this trajectory continues, I worry about what condition the country will be in by then.

And what about the seniors who voted for Trump? How do they feel now that Social Security offices are closing and workers are being laid off? When the Commerce Secretary brushed off concerns about late checks—suggesting a delay of a week or so would be no big deal—I wanted to shout: Wanna bet?

There’s a lot of noise out there. A lot of shouting, marching, hand-wringing. But not a lot of clarity or direction. Sometimes, it feels like we’ve passed the point of no return. Judging by the way our allies are behaving, they seem to think we already have.

Irreconcilable Differences

I recommend the recent and well written articles from Maureen Dowd, David Brooks and Thomas Friedman on the insanity and stupidity of the Trump Administration.

What happens when people lose the ability to reason or render good judgments? Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Donald Trump’s tariff policy. I’ve covered a lot of policies over the decades, some of which I supported and some of which I opposed. But I have never seen a policy as stupid as this one. It is based on false assumptions. It rests on no coherent argument in its favor. It relies on no empirical evidence. It has almost no experts on its side — from left, right or center. It is jumble-headedness exemplified. Trump himself personifies stupidity’s essential feature — self-satisfaction, an inability to recognize the flaws in your thinking. And of course when the approach led to absolutely predictable mayhem, Trump, lacking any coherent plan, backtracked, flip-flopped, responding impulsively to the pressures of the moment as his team struggled to keep up.

David Brooks Producing Something This Stupid Is the Achievement of a Lifetime New York Times 4/10/25

So I watched Bill Maher last night on his HBO show. Maher described his recent visit to the White House and conversation with Donald Trump. Sounded like a Kumbaya moment. Trump asked Maher about his opinions on various topics, including Iran, and he even laughed at some of Maher’s jokes. Maher found Trump to be personable and focused on the conversation. It almost sounded like a reassuring segment until one realizes how Trump has ruined the economy and has absolutely no clue on how to conduct policy or run the government. I have read that Hitler had a hypnotic effect on people that he met. I assume that Maher had a similar experience with Trump. I have no issue with Maher meeting with Trump, but I sense that there is no real benefit for either guy though Bill might find a more receptive MAGA audience for the future.

This writer has a high school reunion scheduled. The last one (five years ago) was canceled due to Covid. There were also issues with some of my classmates regarding politics. My class has a significant core of Trump supporters. And strangely enough, political passions may have an effect on whether people want to attend this year’s reunion or not. I try not to engage in political discussions with just about everyone. Regrettably earlier this week, I was involved in a “conversation” with a Trump supporter of my advanced age and I found myself losing my temper. He was wrapped around women in the military, abortion, trans rights, LGBQT and was totally oblivious to the current administration’s poor handling of the economy, foreign policy, national security, cabinet selections, DOGE, compliance to law, etc. Prior to 2008, I was happy to engage in a discussion about politics and current events. But when Obama came in, civility went out. I don’t write to engage in debate. I write to clarify my thinking and for someone hopefully 20 or 30 years from now will read this and conclude there was one sensible man in an era of continual tumult.

Times Out

The Sunday New York Times remains one of life’s pleasures. I do miss reading the enormous print edition of the paper with the magazine but at least the online edition still suffices. Shown below are a book I’d like to read and useful analysis and advice from various columnists.

Flesh

by David Szalay

Szalay’s new novel traces the life of a young man in Hungary who eventually makes his way to England, following him from troubled youth to immigrant success to tragic fall. Each chapter provides glimpses of the major stages of adulthood — first love, marriage, parenthood — interwoven with intervals of aimlessness, reinvention and grief. With cool detachment, Szalay offers observations on both the complicated self and the unpredictable world surrounding it.

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Our current antiglobal moment could last for a long time. Illiberalism is alive and strong. Comparisons that once seemed incendiary or irresponsible now seem obvious. As in the 1930s, minority groups are being scapegoated as symbols and causes of globalization’s ills. For Jews then, read migrants or trans people now. Mr. Trump’s imminent betrayal of Ukraine suggests that we are moving rapidly through the 1930s and have already arrived in 1938. That’s when Western leaders in Munich decided to allow Hitler to dismember one of Europe’s few remaining democracies, Czechoslovakia. It was not worth risking lives over “a quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing,” reasoned the dangerously reasonable Neville Chamberlain. Less than one year later, Hitler browbeat the president of what remained of Czechoslovakia into accepting a complete occupation of his country.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a déjà vu moment for historians of World War II. Will Greenland and Canada become the next Czechoslovakia and Poland?

Globalization Is Collapsing. Brace Yourselves.
By Tara Zahra
Dr. Zahra is a professor of history at the University of Chicago and has written extensively about globalization’s first collapse.

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A 20 minute agility workout to improve balance

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Instead of following the standard guidance to keep withdrawals to 4 percent of the balance in your retirement account, then adjust annually for inflation, you might forgo the inflation raise when stock prices are falling, Dr. Pfau said. Or you can install so-called guardrails, limiting withdrawals to, say, 3 percent in bad years for stocks but taking out, perhaps, 5 percent when the market is surging.

How to Protect Your Retirement Savings Now as Markets Plunge by Diane Harris

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My problem is with Trump’s magical thinking that you just put up walls of protection around an industry (or our whole economy) and — presto! — in short order, U.S. factories will blossom and make those products in America at the same cost with no burden for U.S. consumers.

For starters, that view completely misses the fact that virtually every complex product today — from cars to iPhones to mRNA vaccines — is manufactured by giant, complex, global manufacturing ecosystems. That is why those products get steadily better and cheaper. Sure, if you are protecting the steel industry, a commodity, our tariffs might quickly help. But if you are protecting the auto industry and you think just putting up a tariff wall will do it, you don’t know anything about how cars are made. It would take years for American car companies to replace the global supply chains they depend on and make everything in America. Even Tesla has to import some parts.

I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America. Thomas L. Friedman

Land of the Free? Home of the Brave?

It’s gutting—and deeply humiliating—to hear Canadians booing our national anthem at recent sporting events. But I don’t blame them. Not one bit.

Given the economic, political, and moral wreckage left behind by our twice-elected president, their disgust is understandable. The confusion and contempt from our allies aren’t aimed solely at the man in the Oval Office—they’re aimed at the people who put him there. Twice.

Let’s call it what it is: the United States has betrayed its friends, waged economic war on its own citizens, and devolved into a carnival of cowardice. The respect of our allies? That ship has sailed—and may not return in our lifetimes.

The Republican Party is a gelatinous mass of fear and sycophancy, devoid of courage or principle. The Democratic Party? A staggering monument to incompetence, still fumbling through the aftermath of letting a failed businessman and convicted felon stroll back into power.

And democracy? Please. We are no longer a beacon of anything. The Constitution has become a quaint relic, a yellowing parchment trotted out for ceremonial purposes while those in power treat it like a suggestion menu at a diner they never plan to pay for.

Maybe—just maybe—a sliver of Trump voters feel some remorse. But let’s be clear: 77 million people helped break this country. They owe their children, their neighbors, and the world an apology.

The red MAGA cap is no longer a slogan. It’s a symbol—loud, defiant, and chilling. Our allies don’t see us as brave. They see us as brainwashed. And in the eyes of much of the world, that crimson hat might as well be a swastika.

We have not simply lost our way. We’ve torched the map and handed the match to a mob.

How America Works… and Why it Doesn’t: A Brief Guide to the US Political System by William Cooper (Book Review)

I wish I could have our friends outside the United States read this book so they can understand what is going on inside it. The book is useful for citizens inside the United States but daily events related to DOGE, budget cuts, Elon Musk, court orders being ignored and chaos from Washington DC are front and center in our minds 24 hours daily.

Cooper does a very good of explaining the national crisis affecting the United States and its consequences to the rest of the world. He describes how the government and our political system were intended to work. And he accurately analyzes why they aren’t working. Cooper also tries to be even handed on his criticism of both political parties and their leaders.

This book will be an excellent resource for historians 20 or more years out trying to explain the craziness of our contemporary times and politics. I appreciate that this book was updated to reflect the start of the second Trump Administration.

If I have any reservations about this book, it’s that I feel that Cooper is being a bit more optimistic than I am about this country’s immediate future. Cooper writes “None of these definitions applies to Trump. He doesn’t have absolute power over the whole of government. He’s not even close to that. He remains constitutionally responsible to the people in significant and fundamental ways…The most serious domestic risk America faces with Trump as president isn’t dictatorship. It’s that the military follows his orders to break the law—to go after American citizens, for example. This scenario, however, is unlikely.”

I have the advantage of seeing how things have unfolded with in the Trump administration since the book has been published and the author may want to temper his faith in the power of our Constitution and the rationality of the Trump presidency.

Below are some notes and highlights that will provide the prospective reader of an introduction to the book and topics…

Obama’s presidency deeply unsettled and angered millions of Americans not ready for a Black president. And Trump’s hostility to minorities (sometimes subtle, sometimes overt, always cunning) drives his popularity among many Republicans, particularly in southern states.

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If the President of the United States were ever to punish disfavored speakers like the Harvard faculty, Google’s CEO, or the New York Times’ publisher, the nation would be in peril.

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The root cause of America’s twenty-first-century decline is the combination of (1) tribalism, (2) social media, and (3) a malformed political structure.

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Journalists are now disproportionately focused on writing stories that will go viral on Facebook and Twitter, a very different goal from writing stories that will educate and inform

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Americans focus little on human history, let alone absorb its lessons. And an embarrassing percentage of them don’t understand basic civics.

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Just look at the presidency. Donald Trump is grossly unfit to hold America’s highest office…The House of Representatives, moreover, is throbbing with underqualified mediocrities.

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The remedies are easy to prescribe. Americans must improve civic education in schools; raise awareness about cognitive biases throughout society; spend more time with people from other political tribes; reduce and regulate the use of social media; rework the political structure to foster more political parties and equal representation; double down on free speech; shun politically motivated prosecutions; feverishly guard election integrity; and support a new Republican champion other than Donald Trump.

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While Cooper’s remedies are easier to prescribe, they are impossible to fulfill. God bless the United States…

America’s Reputation and the Lessons of History

It Isn’t Just Trump. America’s Whole Reputation Is Shot by David Brooks is a sobering analysis of the chess pieces to fall now that our closest allies no longer trust Trump or Americans.

This is not just a Trump problem; America’s whole reputation is shot. I don’t care if Abraham Lincoln himself walked into the White House in 2029, no foreign leader can responsibly trust a nation that is perpetually four years away from electing another authoritarian nihilist.
It Isn’t Just Trump. America’s Whole Reputation Is Shot. David Brooks NYT 3/13/2025

While many draw comparisons between Hitler and Trump—particularly in how they gained and wielded power—I find the parallels between the German people of the early 1930s and Americans today more compelling.

After World War I, Germany was severely punished. It lost territory, its military was disarmed, and the burden of reparations crippled its economy. By the early 1930s, Germany, like much of the world, was in economic turmoil. Unemployment was rampant, and many were homeless and hungry. The country’s ability to recover was constrained by the strict terms imposed after the war.

In contrast, America in 2024 was not in crisis. The economy was largely stable, with low unemployment and a strong stock market. Inflation and housing affordability were challenges, but interest rate cuts signaled efforts to curb economic strain. Unlike pre-war Germany, the U.S. had not suffered a recent military defeat and remained the dominant global power, respected by allies and feared by adversaries.

Despite this position of strength, over 77 million Americans elected a candidate widely seen as aged, incoherent, and lacking a clear platform—a stark contrast to Germany in the 1930s, where voters turned to a charismatic leader promising national revival. Germany was desperate to rebuild; America was already strong.

From a historical view, which country was most guilty of making the most irrational choice at the time? The German people’s decision turned out to be catastrophic. Will America and Americans avoid the disapprobation of history? Time will tell…

State of the Dis-Union

A few fast observations:

The old Democratic strategy of “when they go low, we go high” is a loser.

While I appreciate its intent, peaceful demonstrations, petitions, and letter writing campaigns are passé and ineffective. The age of civil persuasion is dead.

A new political party (Democratic or other) needs a Machiavellian leader, a bit evil but unlike the Republican version, smart. (Maybe Mark Cuban?)

Now the Republicans are concerned about decorum?! Why didn’t this concern apply during Joe Biden’s State of the Union when Lauren Bobert and Marjorie Taylor Greene acted up like spoiled high school sophomores screeching for attention at a school dance.

Congressman Al Green was the only one Democrat with a backbone? When he was removed, all other Democrats should have walked out too.

Likewise, when the Associated Press was barred from White House press room, other legitimate press and news outlets should have left too.

The biggest slaughter this winter was not the Eagles beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but the political thumping Republicans have handed the Democrats since Inauguration Day.

Joe Biden (or his enablers) and Merrick Garland are hugely responsible for the current political mess. They engaged in pillow throwing while Trump and the GOP went MMA.

The “reporter” who asked Zelensky why he was not wearing a suit to the White House must have received his journalism degree from Trump University.

Death knells have been announced periodically for both parties over the decades. However I hear a rattle anytime a Democrat politician speaks.

Communications from Democratic congressmen and women to constituents about how bad Trump is are useless. We get it. Things are bad and about to get worse. Create a plan or strategy and tell us what you are going to do as a party. How about someone stepping up as an effective opposition leader?

I would not count on midterms or any other future elections to change the political direction. First, not sure that they will take place. And second, very uncertain if they take place, whether the results will be “accurate.”

Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father’s Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success by Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig (Book Review)

This book offers an in-depth look at Donald Trump—the businessman, real estate investor, entrepreneur, and brand. Much of the narrative focuses on his struggles to finance buildings, casinos, golf courses, and other projects. Despite his relentless self-promotion, Trump has repeatedly proven to be a poor businessman, often relying on his father, Fred Trump, to bail him out of financial trouble.

As you read, one question becomes unavoidable: Why would anyone choose to partner with Donald Trump? His track record as a business leader is riddled with failure, and those who have worked with him—contractors, lenders, and employees—frequently find themselves shortchanged. Why lend money to someone who appears to lack financial discipline in both his personal and professional life?

A Trump supporter might dismiss this book as misinformation, but the authors had access to extensive financial records, including Trump’s tax returns. Their research is bolstered by interviews with numerous individuals who have firsthand experience dealing with him.

The fact free bubble Fox News created around Donald Trump as president may have felt familiar. He had spent his entire life in a similar bubble, financed by his father. In this comfortable place, he could hide his failures, pay for them with his father’s money, and later a celebrity’s fortune. There would be no metrics measuring his success, just the impression of self created wealth that he willed into existence.From the moment he left his father’s careful planning practices behind, he protected his bubble by waging war on the fact based world that might pop it.

Trump’s failures in the casino industry in Atlantic City are well-documented. His attempt to buy an NFL franchise led instead to the downfall of the USFL. When journalists and analysts challenged his exaggerated business claims, he responded with lawsuits and intimidation tactics.

Perhaps his greatest success—if it can be called that—was The Apprentice, a reality show that portrayed him as a shrewd businessman with exceptional judgment. This carefully crafted image helped convince much of the public that he was a financial genius, a perception that played a crucial role in his 2016 presidential campaign.

The book is 456 pages long and thoroughly researched, with extensive footnotes to support its claims. In fact, published articles by the authors on Trump’s finances earned them a Pulitzer Prize.

I wish I could say this book might change the minds of his staunchest supporters, but realistically, many of them are unlikely to engage with a work of this length and depth.

A Vote for Epistocracy

Epistocracy is a system in which the votes of people who can prove their political knowledge count more than the votes of people who can’t. In other words, it’s a system that privileges the most politically informed citizens.

Given the notable failures of US democracy in the past, few decades, I seek a new political system alternative. Epistocracy appeals to me as it rewards a demonstration of competence in judgment when voting. For example, a voter should have more than a passing knowledge of American history, its political system and the ability to discern facts and truth from disinformation.

I recognize that it would be very hard to implement this type of political system. Two big issues: First, determining what the criteria is for voter competence. Lord knows that the bar would be very low if the Republican Party had any input into this criteria. Second, getting the buy in from the American people that this system is better and would result in better candidates and better results from our elected representatives.

This idea may be a disillusioned man’s dream. But given the sad circumstance of our national Administration, its incompetence and the mediocrity of our elected national representatives, I am a poor man’s “Elon Musk” looking to improve government.

Here is my contribution for a simple introductory test to see if a voter merits competence consideration…