My 2024 Political Crystal Ball

While I think that Joe Biden has done a very good job under very difficult circumstances, I don’t think that he should seek re-election. His greatest contribution has been to bring back dignity and decorum to the oval office.
My suspicion is that Donald Trump will withdraw from seeking the Republican presidential nomination primarily as he will be in significant legal jeopardy.
I don’t view Mike Pence as a serious presidential contender. Pence did show some integrity and even some courage on January 6, 2021. But he was basically a toady during the Trump administration and he was very inept during the coronavirus crisis.
I am not sure why Kamala Harris is being buried as a potential presidential candidate. It does not appear that she is being taken seriously by members of her party. Her only chance would come if she needed to assume the presidency in the event that Joe Biden is unable to complete his term.
There has to be a more capable woman than Nikki Haley in the Republican Party to run for president!
My concern is that no moderate or at least rational candidate will come from the Republican Party. I would even view Chris Christie as a welcome candidate for 2024.
I think that there is a good chance that the handling of the coronavirus crisis will be an issue for 2024. I’m not just talking about the various lockdowns but the necessity for vaccine mandates given some of the medical information that is now filtering out.
I view with growing concern the decline in support of Ukraine in their war against Russia. I also see that being a critical issue in 2024 if the war is not over.
It is so easy to manipulate and fool not only the American public but also the American press. The 2024 election may all be about which propaganda campaign will win.
Please, no celebrity candidates! No Rock. No Matthew McConaughey. No Oprah. However, I might like to see some successful business CEOs choose to run. I am not talking about Elon Musk!

Uvalde, 1/6/21 Committee and Joe Biden

I seriously doubt that any major gun control legislation will be passed even with the massacre of young children and teachers at Uvalde. The news cycle on the story is fading with the pending 1/6/2021 Commission hearings.

It will be interesting to see the TV ratings and the reaction to the televised Commission hearings starting tonight. I remember how enthralled the country was during the Watergate hearings that ultimately brought down the Nixon presidency in 1974.

So far the 1/6/2021 Committee has produced and delivered compelling video, text, and testimonial evidence of an attempted coup by Donald Trump. The coup appears more organized than many have thought.

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024. He is a placeholder President. A likable man, but he is showing his age.

I think there is a 50% chance that Biden will not finish his term due to health reasons. It would also provide Kamala Harris an opportunity to be the frontrunner in 2024 though any support for her appears very soft.

Maybe the dumbest trade in sports history involved the Cleveland Browns picking up DeShaun Watson. He is this football era’s OJ Simpson.

I paid $50 to fill my gas tank and I had a 1/2 tank left! That’s why Democrats are going to lose so many election races in November.

In Primo Aspectu (at first glance)

Joe Biden should not run for a second term. I always viewed him as a placeholder until a younger man or woman ran for the office. In a sense he is like Gerald Ford—-a good man providing some needed relief and a period of decency and calm after replacing a corrupt prior president and administration.

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That being said, Biden generally does not deserve some of the low poll numbers or extreme criticism that he has received from less than one year in office. The economy is strong. People are going back to work. There are no troops in Afghanistan after 20 years. We are working with our allies again. The infrastructure bill will add jobs to various states and communities as well as improving local economies by fixing roads, bridges and transportation services.

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My hope is that the following people do not run or do not get nominated as the Republican candidate for President: Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz or anyone remotely associated with the Trump Administration or supporting it.

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Currently the Democrats are looking at losing both the House and Senate in next year’s mid-terms. However if the Supreme Court decides to revoke Roe v Wade or support additional measures by States to restrict abortions, that may energize the Democratic party and could mitigate potential losses.

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Omicron, the new Covid variant, is headed this way from Africa or Europe, if it is not here already. I think most Americans are tired of Covid precautions and I sense that many will roll the dice and avoid any lockdowns, vaccinations or other preventive measures if they are mandated or recommended by the government or CDC.

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Count me as slightly suspicious that both Moderna and Pfizer announced that they can produce a counter vaccine to Omicron. A scientist from South Africa had described the effects of Omicron as relatively mild. Slight cough and fever that lasted 2-3 days. Most of the people who had the new variant were reportedly unvaccinated. So do we really need a new vaccine?

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Unless I see dozens of people consisting of White House officials, high level Trump flunkies, with Congressmen and Congresswomen indicted, convicted and sent to jail, then I would view the Congressional hearings on 1/6/2021 as a waste of time. I know Trump will not be indicted but Steve Bannon and Mark Meadows can take his place in prison.

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Totally confused by Penn State providing James Franklin a 10 year contract based on his mediocre record so far. I think the only guarantee Franklin can make is that the Penn State program will be better than Rutgers.

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I thought fans of English football (soccer) were fanatical. But they may be in second place after the fans of football teams in the SEC, many of whom are crazy.

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I originally thought it was dumb to rename Woodrow Wilson High School in Camden based on the allegations that Wilson was a racist. But based on cursory research, there may be justifications to make the change. Wilson, among other racist actions, policies and thoughts, supported the Ku Klux Klan.

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Review: Peril by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa

Authors Bob Woodward and Robert Costa closed this book with the following warning based on a conversation with Donald Trump.

“Real power is – – I don’t even want to use the word – – fear,” Trump told us.

“I bring the rage out. I do bring rage out. I always have. I don’t know if that’s an asset or a liability, but whatever it is, I do.”

Could Trump work his will again? Were there any limits to what he and his supporters might do to put him back in power?

Peril remains.

I have read a number of the retrospectives of the Trump presidency particularly as it relates to his last year and last days in office. There is nothing in this book that presents Trump in a positive light. There are plenty of examples of him being a bully, arrogant, insensitive and just plain stupid. Despite entreaties from many in his cabinet, among advisers and even from his daughter Ivanka, Trump continued to believe that he was cheated in the 2020 presidential election. There is very little doubt that he caused the insurrection on January 6, 2021.

Most of the highlights of this book have been reported through various media. Here is my list of observations and analysis from this book:

Mike Pence was a coward. Yes he finally did the right thing by validating the election. But it appears to the reader that he was looking for a way to accommodate Donald Trump’s wishes to overturn the election results. Pence even sought the advice of that well-known constitutional scholar, Dan Quayle, as to what to do. Quayle thankfully told Pence that he had no role in overturning the election. Even after a Trump mob wanted to hang him, Pence returned to the White House and tried to mend a relationship with a man who mocked him and treated him very poorly during their four year administration.

General Mark Milley was a voice of reason during a very precarious period in our nation’s history. He understood the danger that Donald Trump represented and was very concerned that Trump would create either a war or some type of foreign policy crisis so he could stay in office. In particular Milley assured the Chinese that there would be no military actions against them. There were a few countries that were very concerned that Trump would initiate a military attack against them.

The benefit of this book was to see the campaign of Joe Biden and his first few months as President. The contrast in decency between Biden and Trump is very evident throughout the many anecdotes in this book. Unfortunately the Democratic party does not shine. Too much infighting. Lack of party discipline and unity. Too much influence by West Virginia senator Joe Manchin. One gets the sense that Biden is a placeholder and does not possess the necessary influence to put forward a transformative domestic agenda and get it passed in Congress.

Interestingly enough, there is not a lot of coverage about Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden had spoken with South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn prior to the South Carolina primary and Biden indicated he was favorable to Kamala being on the national ticket. There is little indication how much influence Harris possesses in decision making or policy.

If you are going to read just one book about the end of the Trump presidency in 2021, this book is the best to read. Just don’t be surprised if Woodward has to write another sequel in 2024 about the re-election of Trump.